What better way to kick off the new year than to make a few predictions and check back next year to see how accurate we are? Take a look at our 2009 predictions and tell us what you think.

1. Mobile phones will see their first major form factor breakthrough since the iPhone.

It seems like every smart phone you see these days are either large screen with virtual keyboard (e.g. iPhone), large screen with slide-out keyboard (e.g. G1), or BlackBerry style half screen/half keyboard (e.g. BlackBerry Bold). We have been stagnant with these limited form factors for a year and a half.

In 2009, we will see major form factor breakthrough. Maybe it will be like the Pomegranate phone, or maybe it will have a foldable OLED display, but a new innovative form factor is overdue.

The video below shows the hilarious ultimate all-in-one device. If you want to play around with the web demo yourself, you can click here (Flash required).


Hilarious Pomegranate Phone Concept

The video below shows Samsung demo’ing a foldable OLED display. While the above video is just for giggles, this one is serious stuff and I fully expect commercial application over the next couple of years.


Samsung demonstrates foldable OLED Displays

 

2. An Updated Kindle will arrive, legitimizing the 3rd device category.

Amazon will release an updated version of the Kindle, and although it will don the the industrial design of the 80’s, it will sell more due to a larger distribution channels – expect them to show up at retail stores. It will emerge as the 3rd device category as people discover that they can surf the web on a relatively large screen device for free in addition to taking all their books with them. Over time, it will have a better web browser, and incorporate color e-ink technology. Other companies will envy Amazon’s success and jump onto the bandwagon. Sony’s sexy e-reader will continue to lag behind on sales due to lack of always on wide-area cellular connectivity and lack of content. If economy is really bad, Sony may even finally cut their e-book reader effort after years of trying.

kindle 

Oh ya, Kindles will be sold out again for Christmas 2009. Better reserve your copy now.

3. Tracking down your friends will become easier.

You can finally track the physical locations of your friends on Facebook and MySpace in real-time, if they let you. All new mobile phones will have GPS built-in. Startups like Loopt, Buddy Beacon and Whrrl will consolidate or get bought. We will see much more innovative services besides navigation in the location-based services space. LBS on the mobile phones will become more mainstream. Mega powers like Google and Microsoft will be in the game too. But for you, the most important thing is that you can track down John and Michelle, right?

4. Android will gain major traction.

android Android had a big year in 2008, having released their first handset (see T-Mobile G1 review), released Android Market, and signed on 14 new members into the Open Handset Alliance. Now, all of the industry heavyweights are part of the OHA, including Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Toshiba, HTC, ASUSTek and Huawei just to name a few.

Next year we will see a steady stream of Android phones come to market and expect innovations to speed up. The next release, dubbed “Cupcake”, already boasts an impressive list of features including video capture, copy and paste, virtual on-screen keyboard, etc. Microsoft will under a lot of price pressure to compete with a superior mobile OS that’s free. We don’t know when Windows Mobile 7 will come out yet, but it better be soon and it better be good.

The Android Market will also start support paid apps early in 2009. This will give developers additional incentive to develop for the Android platform as they can now monetize their applications. Expect AdSense for Android soon.

5. iPhone 4G will *NOT* show up.

There will be a new iPhone released to broaden Apple’s smart phone portfolio, but there will be no major update to the current iPhone. The iPhone will continue to gain market share around the world, and developers around the world will continue to contribute hundreds of thousands of apps to the App Store. Yes, I think the large screen iPod Touch is probably coming as well, but Apple will need to be careful about not fragmenting their developer platform. Perhaps the iPod Touch Macro will compete with the Kindle, but Steve Jobs will continue to live.

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